No Geomagnetic Storms Expected Through Monday
Posted: Oct. 24, 2026, at 06:11 UTC
NOAA Forecast Issued: Oct. 24, 2026, at 00:30 UTC
Day references use UTC.
Forecast Summary
NOAA’s three-day Kp forecast peaks at 3.67 for today through Monday.
NOAA’s blackout probabilities for today are 15% for R1–R2 and 1% for R3 or greater. Both probabilities remain unchanged through Monday. R1–R2 means minor-to-moderate events; R3 or greater means strong or greater events.
For today, NOAA lists a 1% chance of S1 or greater solar radiation storms. That probability remains unchanged through Monday. S1 or greater means a minor or stronger solar radiation storm.
The daily peak Kp forecast is 3.67 today. It remains at 3.67 tomorrow. It decreases to 2.33 on Monday.
Forecaster’s Assessment
Geomagnetic Activity: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackouts: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 24-26 Oct.
Original Forecast Bulletin
Complete source bulletin, preserved as received.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2026
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
00-03UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
03-06UT 2.33 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.67 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 3.33 2.00
12-15UT 1.00 3.67 2.00
15-18UT 0.67 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 3.33 2.00
21-00UT 1.67 3.00 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over 24-26 Oct.
Source: NOAA SWPC Three-Day Forecast (this link serves NOAA’s latest issue).
Retrieved: Oct. 24, 2026, at 06:11 UTC
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